Australia suffers in car-to-bodyshop ratio

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Australia's ratio of cars to bodyshops is significantly lower than the US and just over a quarter of that of the UK if calculations by Australasian Paint & Panel are correct.
According to figures supplied by US industry website collision-insight.com, the US has an estimated 53,000 collision repair facilities. The number of registered cars in the United States is estimated to be about 130 million. UK industry publication Bodyshop Magazine estimates the UK has 5300 bodyshops against 25 million passenger cars.
The Black & White Data Book states there were 9.5 million cars on Australian roads in 1998. Using a median figure gained from Yellow Pages' 1998 figure of 6571 and Desktop Marketing Systems' 2000 figure of 7592, we can gain an estimate of roughly 7000 Australian bodyshops.
Looking at the ratio between bodyshops and cars on the road, there is a marked difference between the market situation in the US, the UK and Australia. The UK scores a ratio of 4464 cars per bodyshop (that is, 4464 vehicles to every bodyshop). The US scores a car-to-bodyshop ratio of 2452, while Australia scores a mere 1357 cars per shop.
Even taking into account the vast differences in geography and population, it is clear that if the Australian repair industry is to follow similar rationalisation lines as the UK and US, significant reductions in shop numbers will follow. The car-to-bodyshop ratio in Australia is likely to be affected by the fact that there are many remote locations, which necessitate their own bodyshop. Still, with proportionally one of the highest urban populations in the world, this factor is not as important in Australia as some might think.
If taken to its logical conclusion, the number of bodyshops in Australia under the US ratio would be 3874, while under the UK ratio, a mere 2081 shops. Taking into account the likelihood that average shop size, except in remote rural areas will likely grow at the expense of small shops, these figures could be at the top end of predictions.
Even using the lower estimate of the number of bodyshops in Australia, supplied by Yellow Pages, which seems more in tune with general industry estimates, 6571 shops is still 900 more shops than the more than double-the-size UK market.
Although these calculations only account for passenger vehicles, the ratio of passenger vehicles to total vehicles is not thought to be significantly different between Australia, the US and the UK.
The above calculations are rough at best -- yet even if they are out by five, 10 or even 20 per cent, they still show a huge disparity between the Australian market and the US and UK. It may be argued that Australia will not follow the same paths as the Northern Hemisphere markets; rapid rationalisation, increased efficiencies, higher volume shops on lowered margins, prevalence of DRPs. The signs are that Australia is already embarking upon these routes however, and with this market sharing many common work providers with the US and UK -- OEMs and insurers -- chances are Australia will continue to move towards its northern cousins.
A recent report from the UK has stated that shop numbers are still falling there, with the number of shops estimated at under 5000 by 2006. The reason is low charge-out rates and increased costs forcing shops to close, not a shortage of work. Significantly, there is expected to be a repair capacity shortage of 13 per cent this northern winter in the UK, expected to grow to 28 per cent by 2006, yet bodyshops continue to close.

Estimated number of bodyshops
US: 53,000
Australia: 7,000
UK: 5,600

Estimated number of cars on road
US: 130.0 million
UK: 25.0 million
Australia: 9.5 million

Car-to-bodyshop ratio
UK: 4464
US: 2452
Australia: 1357